{"id":83,"date":"2026-04-09T02:33:02","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T02:33:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gridizer.com\/research\/?p=83"},"modified":"2026-04-09T02:58:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T02:58:13","slug":"us-macro-note-why-has-the-u-s-bond-shock-not-arrived-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gridizer.com\/research\/us-macro-note-why-has-the-u-s-bond-shock-not-arrived-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Macro Note: Why Has the U.S. Bond Shock Not Arrived \u2014 Yet?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The feared U.S. Treasury auction blow-up has not happened, but recent auctions suggest a bond market that is becoming more selective, less forgiving, and more exposed to inflation, deficits, and geopolitical stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The feared auction accident has not happened.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The latest U.S. Treasury auctions have not produced the kind of outright funding shock some observers feared. The recent 10-year auction was widely described as average to mediocre rather than disastrous. That matters because it suggests that demand for Treasuries is still functioning, even if investors are no longer absorbing supply with the same ease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that does not mean the pressure is gone.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The deeper issue is that the U.S. is now dealing with a more persistent mix of inflation risk, fiscal pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the economy remains in a \u201cgood place,\u201d but she also stressed that higher oil prices and uncertainty around the Iran conflict still matter for inflation. In other words, the Fed is not panicking \u2014 but it is not relaxed eith<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real problem is the regime, not one auction.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The market is shifting from \u201cWill there be a blow-up this week?\u201d to \u201cHow much extra compensation will investors demand over time?\u201d WSJ notes that the ceasefire reduced the odds of an immediate energy shock, but it also made the Fed less likely to rush into rate cuts because inflation risks remain sticky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probability outlook for the next 3\u20136 months<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n