Event
A dated development from an identifiable source. Source and freshness are checked; the strength of the thematic assignment is documented with a score from 0 to 1.
Transparent method
How news becomes reliable signals and map readings.
News is first recorded as events. Grideval checks source, freshness, geographic fit and decision relevance. A technical score from 0 to 1 documents the strength of the thematic assignment. This event assessment prioritizes further review; it is not yet a Pressure or Response Capacity reading for the map.
How evidence moves through Grideval
Qualified Signal
The event is reviewed for relevance, geography, affected response capacity or pressure vector and counter-evidence. An especially significant event can prioritize review or trigger an alert.
Chain hypothesis
Several observations are placed on an explicit cause-and-effect path with intermediate nodes that can be tested separately.
Public Chain Pack
A path becomes public when it is decision-relevant, repeatedly observable and clear about what would weaken or invalidate it.
Approved map influence
A map changes only when the underlying measurement enters an approved feature series and meets the requirements for history, coverage, normalization and release.
Why these public Chain Packs?
The current packs concentrate on pathways where structural force can plausibly reach investment, production, infrastructure delivery or fiscal room—and where the intermediate steps can be observed repeatedly. Energy flows matter, for example, not only because they affect prices, but because prices can reach margins, output, employment, demand and public budgets.
Decision relevance
Would a stronger or broken connection change a location, investment, procurement or policy decision?
Observable nodes
Can trigger, transmission and outcome be checked with recurring evidence rather than a one-off headline?
Independent support
Do different source families support separate parts of the path?
Counter-evidence
What alternative explanation or development would weaken the chain?
No automatic causality
Correlation, visibility or event volume alone never proves transmission.
Three different assessments
Event assessment
The score from 0 to 1 describes the strength of the thematic assignment after quality checks. Further review assesses geographic fit, decision relevance and evidence role. The number is not a map score.
Chain evidence strength
Support and counter-evidence are assessed node by node. A Chain Pack is a reviewed transmission hypothesis, not a causal proof or a standalone score.
Map measurement
Pressure and Response Capacity are built from eligible feature histories and normalized separately. Their balance is directional monitoring, not a forecast.
Readiness, normalization and comparison
Seven distinct daily vintages can support a provisional reading, 30 a trend interpretation and 90 a calibration review. Missing values are never filled with zero. A shared 0–100 display scale does not by itself make Europe and the United States directly comparable. Direct comparisons remain locked until feature, vintage and normalization contracts align.
Demand destruction: apparent relief is not always improvement
Falling demand can reduce measured price, power or delivery pressure while production, orders, employment, investment or tax receipts deteriorate. Demand Health is therefore recorded as a separate observe-only diagnostic. It does not change current public scores. Only stable activity alongside easing demand can become a candidate for healthy relief.
The public evidence contract
Sources remain attributable, Signals retain supporting and counter-evidence, Chain Packs state what would weaken them, and score influence remains explicit. Subscribers may define personal paths and thresholds, but they do not receive a different scoring truth.
View current SignalsInspect Chain PacksReview Sources