Transit can resume before confidence returns
A shipping route can reopen politically long before it normalizes economically. Even if vessels are allowed to pass again, shipowners, insurers, traders, and buyers may still behave cautiously.
The system has already been damaged
This war has not only threatened transit. It has damaged production, export, LNG, and petrochemical infrastructure across the region. That means the issue is no longer just access, but also capacity and reliability.
Shipping may stay expensive
Even with lower headline oil prices, hidden costs can remain elevated:
- rerouting
- insurance premiums
- vessel scarcity
- port inefficiencies
- delayed loading schedules
What the market may miss
The market may be pricing an open strait, while underpricing a slow and uneven restart of the wider energy system. That gap matters because physical normalization can take much longer than financial relief rallies suggest.