Five Paths Into World Recession
Chapter 7 ranks the five most likely scenarios through which regional and sectoral stress could turn into a broader world recession.
Market Impact
The State Between Protection and Overstretch
Chapter 6 shows how welfare demands, defence, debt service and transformation costs collide with a narrowing revenue base.
The Capital That Still Has to Earn
Chapter 4 explains why AI utility, provider profitability and equity returns can diverge sharply — and how that divergence can amplify a confidence recession.
Europe Stops Buying
Chapter 2 shows why Europe’s real demand has not yet collapsed, even as confidence, credit and industry are already weakening.
Double Standards and the New Power Economy
Why Global Companies Must Price Spheres of Influence Again The post-Cold War assumption was that globalization would gradually reduce the economic importance of spheres of influence. Capital, goods, energy, data and technology were expected to move through rules-based systems. Political risk existed, but it was often treated as an exception. That assumption is breaking. The … Read more
Gridizer Research Briefing
Energy, Weather and Retaliation Risk: A New Compound Stress Regime Date: 18 May 2026Focus: Energy security, food production, inflation, geopolitical escalation, AI infrastructure Global markets are increasingly shaped by a compound-risk regime. The key issue is no longer one isolated shock, but the interaction of several stress channels: energy disruption, shipping bottlenecks, fertilizer pressure, weather … Read more
Why Are Markets Pricing Relief While the Damage Remains?
The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has quickly changed market psychology. Oil fell, equities rebounded, and investors began to price immediate relief from further escalation.
Does Reopening Hormuz Mean Normalization?
A shipping route can reopen politically long before it normalizes economically. Even if vessels are allowed to pass again, shipowners, insurers, traders, and buyers may still behave cautiously.