Why Global Companies Must Price Spheres of Influence Again The post-Cold War assumption was that globalization would gradually reduce the economic importance of spheres of influence. Capital, goods, energy, data and technology were expected to move through rules-based systems. Political risk existed, but it was often treated as an exception. That assumption is breaking. The … Read more
Energy, Weather and Retaliation Risk: A New Compound Stress Regime Date: 18 May 2026Focus: Energy security, food production, inflation, geopolitical escalation, AI infrastructure Global markets are increasingly shaped by a compound-risk regime. The key issue is no longer one isolated shock, but the interaction of several stress channels: energy disruption, shipping bottlenecks, fertilizer pressure, weather … Read more
The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has quickly changed market psychology. Oil fell, equities rebounded, and investors began to price immediate relief from further escalation.
A shipping route can reopen politically long before it normalizes economically. Even if vessels are allowed to pass again, shipowners, insurers, traders, and buyers may still behave cautiously.