Five Paths Into World Recession
Chapter 7 ranks the five most likely scenarios through which regional and sectoral stress could turn into a broader world recession.
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The State Between Protection and Overstretch
Chapter 6 shows how welfare demands, defence, debt service and transformation costs collide with a narrowing revenue base.
The Capital That Still Has to Earn
Chapter 4 explains why AI utility, provider profitability and equity returns can diverge sharply — and how that divergence can amplify a confidence recession.
Europe Stops Buying
Chapter 2 shows why Europe’s real demand has not yet collapsed, even as confidence, credit and industry are already weakening.
The World Orders Less
Chapter 3 shows how Europe’s weaker purchasing appetite can turn into a broader order recession through Asian export chains, biflation and consumption psychology.
The Confidence Recession
A confidence recession begins not with one bang but with thousands of cautious decisions that can combine into a global downturn.
When Fear Becomes an Economic Fact
A sea lane can remain geographically open while becoming commercially close to unusable. Chapter 1 shows how fear becomes economic reality through insurance, finance and supply chains.
Who Pays for the War?
A tanker strike at Bab al-Mandab has turned a threatened second chokepoint into an active front. The world now faces a choice: finance an enforceable maritime order or keep paying a coercion tax through energy, freight, inflation and dependency.
Who Wins? Who Loses?
AI can win as a technology while many AI companies, investors and users still lose. Chapter 9 maps the durable winners, the fragile profit pools and the conditions under which demand keeps rising even as valuations and margins fall.
The Leaflet That Never Came
AI’s most important side effects do not look like defects. They look like convenience, affirmation and saved time. Chapter 8 examines cognitive offloading, sycophancy, emotional attachment and the risk that helpful assistance becomes dependence.