admin The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has quickly changed market psychology. Oil fell, equities rebounded, and investors began to price immediate relief from further escalation.
A shipping route can reopen politically long before it normalizes economically. Even if vessels are allowed to pass again, shipowners, insurers, traders, and buyers may still behave cautiously.
The current ceasefire lowers the risk of an immediate US strike, but it does not solve the underlying conflict. Iran still wants broader guarantees, compensation, and a more durable arrangement.
The ceasefire reduced the probability of a near-term energy panic. That explains why oil fell and risk assets rallied.