The immediate shock has eased
The ceasefire reduced the probability of a near-term energy panic. That explains why oil fell and risk assets rallied.
But inflation is more than oil futures
Inflation risk does not come only from the oil chart. It also comes from damaged petrochemical supply, shipping delays, higher insurance costs, tighter logistics, and slower industrial normalization.
A slower macro problem may be emerging
That creates a more complicated outlook. Markets may celebrate the removal of the worst-case scenario, while the real economy still faces a slower-moving cost problem.
What this means
The first phase was a war shock.
The second phase may be a repair lag.
That matters especially for energy-importing economies and sectors that depend on predictable transport, stable input prices, and low inflation. In that sense, the ceasefire may end the panic without ending the macro pressure.