Macro Notes

Europe Macro Note: Why Does Europe Face the Harder Inflation Problem?

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Europe may benefit from the ceasefire headline, but its deeper vulnerability to imported energy, shipping friction, and slower industrial normalization points to a more persistent stagflation risk. Europe’s relief may be more fragile than America’s. The ceasefire has reduced the immediate panic in energy markets, but Europe remains structurally more exposed than the United States. … Read more

U.S. Macro Note: Why Has the U.S. Bond Shock Not Arrived — Yet?

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The feared U.S. Treasury auction blow-up has not happened, but recent auctions suggest a bond market that is becoming more selective, less forgiving, and more exposed to inflation, deficits, and geopolitical stress. The feared auction accident has not happened. The latest U.S. Treasury auctions have not produced the kind of outright funding shock some observers … Read more