Five Paths Into World Recession
Chapter 7 ranks the five most likely scenarios through which regional and sectoral stress could turn into a broader world recession.
Markus Kahnert
The State Between Protection and Overstretch
Chapter 6 shows how welfare demands, defence, debt service and transformation costs collide with a narrowing revenue base.
The Capital That Still Has to Earn
Chapter 4 explains why AI utility, provider profitability and equity returns can diverge sharply — and how that divergence can amplify a confidence recession.
Automation Without Customers
Chapter 5 shows how AI infrastructure, less secure incomes and concentrated gains can combine into a new demand risk.
Europe Stops Buying
Chapter 2 shows why Europe’s real demand has not yet collapsed, even as confidence, credit and industry are already weakening.
The World Orders Less
Chapter 3 shows how Europe’s weaker purchasing appetite can turn into a broader order recession through Asian export chains, biflation and consumption psychology.
The Confidence Recession
A confidence recession begins not with one bang but with thousands of cautious decisions that can combine into a global downturn.
When Fear Becomes an Economic Fact
A sea lane can remain geographically open while becoming commercially close to unusable. Chapter 1 shows how fear becomes economic reality through insurance, finance and supply chains.
Who Pays for the War?
A tanker strike at Bab al-Mandab has turned a threatened second chokepoint into an active front. The world now faces a choice: finance an enforceable maritime order or keep paying a coercion tax through energy, freight, inflation and dependency.
Who Wins? Who Loses?
AI can win as a technology while many AI companies, investors and users still lose. Chapter 9 maps the durable winners, the fragile profit pools and the conditions under which demand keeps rising even as valuations and margins fall.