Markus Kahnert 
The Missing Exit Strategy, Germany’s Cost Burden and the EU’s Consent Problem Europe’s Ukraine policy is increasingly presented as a moral necessity, a defense strategy and a historic enlargement project at the same time. That fusion is politically powerful, but analytically dangerous. Ukraine support, European rearmament, EU fiscal expansion, sanctions, energy restructuring and possible accession … Read more
Why Global Companies Must Price Spheres of Influence Again The post-Cold War assumption was that globalization would gradually reduce the economic importance of spheres of influence. Capital, goods, energy, data and technology were expected to move through rules-based systems. Political risk existed, but it was often treated as an exception. That assumption is breaking. The … Read more
The New Geography of Energy Security The Strait of Hormuz is often discussed as an oil chokepoint. That is correct, but incomplete. The current crisis shows that the oil price alone is no longer a reliable gauge of real energy stress. Transit flows, insurance costs, tanker availability, LNG exposure, refinery compatibility, oil product markets and … Read more
Iran is not too weak to be dangerous — but it is too shaped by the IRGC to implement simple, economically rational compromises with certainty. A deal is possible, but only if it accounts for the IRGC’s power logic, the revolutionary symbolic framework, and Israel’s hard security requirements at the same time. Markets should therefore not confuse Trump’s deal rhetoric with actual implementation. The offer is not the deal.
Energy, Weather and Retaliation Risk: A New Compound Stress Regime Date: 18 May 2026Focus: Energy security, food production, inflation, geopolitical escalation, AI infrastructure Global markets are increasingly shaped by a compound-risk regime. The key issue is no longer one isolated shock, but the interaction of several stress channels: energy disruption, shipping bottlenecks, fertilizer pressure, weather … Read more
Why the Oil Shock Could Spread Beyond Energy The current disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is more than an oil-price story. It is a chain-risk event. What begins as pressure on crude oil, refined products, shipping and insurance can gradually move into less visible but highly critical industrial supply chains. The first visible impact … Read more
Europe’s restraint in the Hormuz crisis may look weak from Washington, but it reflects a mix of strategic caution, legal constraints, energy dependence, and limited confidence in U.S. leadership.
Trump may have reduced immediate war risk, but the domestic political cost of energy stress, strategic inconsistency, and voter fatigue could still rise into the midterms. The ceasefire may help Trump avoid a near-term military overreach, but polling, donor dynamics, and congressional math suggest the political danger has not disappeared. The ceasefire may have reduced … Read more
A ceasefire can calm prices quickly, but damaged oil, gas, LNG, petrochemical, and shipping systems recover on very different timelines. The market has priced immediate relief after the ceasefire, but the physical normalization of energy infrastructure, shipping routes, and industrial systems is likely to take much longer. Political relief is not the same as physical … Read more
Europe may benefit from the ceasefire headline, but its deeper vulnerability to imported energy, shipping friction, and slower industrial normalization points to a more persistent stagflation risk. Europe’s relief may be more fragile than America’s. The ceasefire has reduced the immediate panic in energy markets, but Europe remains structurally more exposed than the United States. … Read more