Research Series & Dossiers
Structured intelligence dossiers on geopolitics, energy, infrastructure, AI and market consequences. The Dossier Map on the left is the main navigation layer; the content area explains the active dossiers and latest chapters.
Active Research Series
5 groupsThe Confidence Recession
A confidence recession begins not with one bang but with thousands of cautious decisions that can combine into a global downturn.
Open →Inside Iran War
The New Geography of Energy Security The Strait of Hormuz is often discussed as an oil chokepoint. That is correct, but incomplete. The current…
Open →AI winners & losers
The most dangerous AI scenario may be its success. This dossier traces the chain from chips, power and capital to data, regulation and human…
Open →Europe Under Pressure
Europe is not facing one crisis but a convergence of pressures: war in the east, instability in the south, expensive energy, ageing societies and…
Open →The New Dimensions of Power
Artificial intelligence is no longer just a software story. Energy, chips, capital, regulation and geopolitical access increasingly determine who can build, scale and control…
Open →Latest Chapters
recent updatesFive Paths Into World Recession
Chapter 7 ranks the five most likely scenarios through which regional and sectoral stress could turn into a broader world recession.
Read →The State Between Protection and Overstretch
Chapter 6 shows how welfare demands, defence, debt service and transformation costs collide with a narrowing revenue base.
Read →The Capital That Still Has to Earn
Chapter 4 explains why AI utility, provider profitability and equity returns can diverge sharply — and how that divergence can amplify a…
Read →Automation Without Customers
Chapter 5 shows how AI infrastructure, less secure incomes and concentrated gains can combine into a new demand risk.
Read →Europe Stops Buying
Chapter 2 shows why Europe’s real demand has not yet collapsed, even as confidence, credit and industry are already weakening.
Read →The World Orders Less
Chapter 3 shows how Europe’s weaker purchasing appetite can turn into a broader order recession through Asian export chains, biflation and consumption…
Read →The Confidence Recession
A confidence recession begins not with one bang but with thousands of cautious decisions that can combine into a global downturn.
Read →When Fear Becomes an Economic Fact
A sea lane can remain geographically open while becoming commercially close to unusable. Chapter 1 shows how fear becomes economic reality through…
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